Australian Dollar – Is there a bull-trap in place from Tuesday’s rejection?

April 21, 2021 - 4 weeks ago
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The Australian Dollar ‘bull trap’ appears to have been triggered on Tuesday, as the bullish challenge upon the minor resistance at US$0.7815 (also intraday high), was rejected.

From the challenge, the market staged a significant downturn and plummeted near the lows of US$0.7712 on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia published the dovish minutes of its latest meeting.

The RBA board members remain committed to doing what they reasonably can do to support the Australian economy while citing the need for “highly supportive” monetary conditions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates at a record low 0.10% at its April 6 meeting while reiterating its commitment to keep policy accommodative for as long as is necessary to pull down unemployment and push inflation higher.

The minutes showed the RBA would maintain this supportive policy stance until actual inflation is sustainably within its 2-3% target range, a goal it does not expect to meet before 2024.

The Australian retail turnover rose 1.4% during March 2021, well-surpassing the consensus of 1% growth, according to preliminary retail trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The prior month was -0.8%.

Due to the rejection of the minor resistance at US$0.7815, a potential bull-trap may be in place.

Technically, a New York close beneath the US$0.7690 would reinstate the bearish sentiment to US$0.7625-35.

The resistance (intraday) is located at $US0.7765.

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