Australian Dollar tumbles and hits the short-term objective at US$0.6005-10 – Bears are likely to remain in the picture

April 3, 2020 - 2 months ago
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The Australian Dollar wild rollercoaster ride could be heard ‘loudly’ in the overnight’s session, as prices nose-dived, initially plummeting from an intraday day high of US$0.6118 and surprisingly reaching its designated, “target” at US$0.6005-10, (intraday low US$0.6006) which has now led to a modest bounce since the New York close.

Looking ahead today, there are many twists and turns for Friday’s session after the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday reported a record 6.6 million people had filed for unemployment benefits for the week of March 27. That’s more than double the previous week’s total of 3.28 million.

The numbers weren’t necessarily a surprise, but a reminder of just how hard and fast the coronavirus disruption is hitting American workers.

In just the past two weeks alone, new claims have easily exceeded the peak number of people who collected benefits during the 2007-09 recession.

At the end of the last U.S. recession, 6.6 million people drew benefits, a record at that time. In a separate report, the government also said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $39.9 billion in February from $45.5 billion in January.

Looking to this Friday is the release of the March jobs report, which is likely to show a sharp drop in payrolls.

The Non-Farm Employment Change forecast holds at -100k, with the previous month release at 273k, with the Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 3.8%, with the last statement at the 50-year lows at 3.5%. Although there is talk that the U.S. unemployment is quickly zeroing in on 10%, as the rapid spread of the coronavirus shows no signs of easing the economic pain anytime soon.

Looking back to the technical aspect, any renewed upside challenge would likely experience a lack of demand near the US$0.6125-65 resistance.

The call is now for a re-challenge of the support located at US$0.6005-10. Reassess from there as we could be even looking deeper to US$0.5885-95.

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